No algorithms. No content filters. No A.I. — Honest and insightful analysis from Richmond, VA.
Yesterday we wrote about how “water” will dominate the 2025 Richmond word cloud graphic and covered the state’s latest Notice of Violation about the city water plant, the city’s ongoing communication efforts, a strange data point from the May 27th water failure, and the city’s increasingly expensive bills to provide information to the public. Today we finish with the effect the water plant meltdown had at the polls last week and the importance of a pursuing a regional water solution. You can read Part 1 here.
The shocking results from the last week's Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor offer a heedful lesson and dire warning for elected officials in the city of Richmond: fix it, or be gone. Former Mayor Stoney narrowly lost the nomination statewide, but was destroyed on his home turf by more than 10,500 votes. State Senator Ghazala Hashmi racked up 58% of the vote in the city, while Stoney only got a little over 20%, even though he served as mayor for eight years — or perhaps it is more accurate to say, because he served as mayor for eight years.
Stoney’s strategy seems to have been to run up votes in Northern Virginia and other parts of the state where people weren’t aware of his record or the problems he left behind in Richmond and then minimize the losses in the city. It almost worked because he only lost by about 3,800 votes statewide, but Richmonders wanted to make their voices clear that if they had something to say about it, they would do so at the polls. They made their voices more than clear not just to Stoney, but gave those now in office fair warning.
George Mason political science professor Mark Rozell noted that if Stoney had gotten just half the vote in the city he would have won by 6,700 votes (about 1.5% in a six way race). Political guru Bob Holsworth said the lack of votes for Stoney across the city: “The absolute lack of votes in some of these precincts was simply extraordinary. It was unbelievable what happened here.”
For example, the two precincts in the Museum District selected Senator Hashmi with 1,278 votes while Stoney received just 82 (the other three candidates received 335 votes total). In the Oregon Hill neighborhood, Hashmi won 196 votes to Stoney’s 19, and in the Fan neighborhood in the 2nd District, Hashmi outpaced Stoney 1,445 to 126. Hashmi won 7 of 8 precincts in the 7th District in the East End, and 8 of 10 precincts in the 3rd District across Northside. Stoney swept the 8th and 9th Districts in Southside that also were the only two districts that voted for the second casino referendum that failed in 2021 and 2023.
“You take out Richmond, and he wins the state,” Holsworth said. “You had people who were just angry with him and came out to make a statement.”
Larry Sabato, president of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, called the outcome “almost unprecedented,” given how politicians typically perform best at home. Randolph Macon professor Rich Meagher told Axios, "We think, here in Richmond, everybody knows this story," noting Stoney did well statewide. "But the only story that maybe they heard is the story that Levar Stoney told them about himself."
Rozell also added, “In the end, the voters who knew him best sealed his fate. There is no gentle way to interpret losing the city he led for eight years by a whopping 37 percentage points.”
Which is really the lesson of the day/year/next election cycle for Mayor Avula, City Council and those interested in local public service: if you want to serve, you have to serve the public, not yourself. People have made it clear they want to see progress,
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